Wednesday 30 October 2013
Keynes & germany today!
The best investment a country of the rich, if they are not planning to leave it, is Pay higher taxes and wages - provided healthy and honest operation of the State.
The Keynes was undoubtedly a very smart man - a fact that at least we do not conclude that the extremely valuable financial work, but since he managed to get along great fortune , mainly investing the money properly , remaining honest and patriot .
What of course we are interested in this case , it is not his wealth or how to obtain it, but he knew and respected the concerns of the rich - one of which is the safety of their money , in the sense of proper placement.
In this case , it is certainly interesting thoughts , based on which the best investment of a rich country, if not planning to leave it, is Pay higher taxes and wages - of course subject to the existence of a stable and sound fiscal framework , a " friendly " non-bureaucratic business environment, as well as a non- corrupt political leadership , which has the confidence of the citizens .
At first glance , of course , the thought seems silly - since both taxes, and wage increases for workers , reduce the net income of the rich. However, if given as much importance to the fact that the excess money, ie they are not used to meet the daily needs, have no value ( itself) , while a secure investment is not at all easy , perhaps we understood this thought.
In particular , the " attitude" in the state (taxes ) , as well as to employees (wages ) has a significant advantage , which ultimately multiplies clad money : that both the state and the working poor , not saving the additional money received , but instead consume almost immediately.
Thereby increasing general demand , which makes profitable investments in production - the real economy then, instead of the stock markets , where ordinary bubbles caused mainly destroying the rich. This not only deficient states, but the surplus - which face major problems of their own surpluses .
To better understand the issue, we will refer to the example of Germany - interpreting simultaneously the cause of the increase of its own stock index (DAX), a record .
GERMANY
Only in 2012 , the surplus of Germany reached 188 billion € - and since the beginning of this millennium has risen to a total of 2 trillion €. Essentially course , surpluses are savings - after one sells goods abroad , taking against them money, but not spending .
Further, when the surpluses increase their savings in Germany, the deficit countries the opposite is true : because they introduce more products than they export , they are forced to borrow from abroad to pay.
In this case, one of the major creditors were Germany - which compelled somehow to lend money to spare from the surpluses accumulate each year to have the potential deficit countries to continue to buy products .
At some point , both Member abroad, and their businesses yperchreothikan - so they can not repay their debts towards Germany. In this context , the German individuals have lost the amount of € 600 billion between 2006 and 2012 - that is, nearly a third of total surpluses of their country by the year 2000.
This amount may increase even more if countries like Greece , Italy , Spain etc. defaulted payments of bond borrowing - unable to turn to cope when their private sector collapses .
Continuing the Germans individuals , realizing the risk of losing even more money, have ceased to lend abroad. Therefore diminished their exports , so the country's GDP , their revenues and so on.
On the other hand , the money remains within Germany must either be invested or loaned to other firms or households - which of course is difficult , since
( a) no one invests when growth slows due to restriction of exports - the German economy growing at just 0.5 %
( b) the interest rates on the inside is too low ( hence unprofitable ), due to the large supply , while
( c ) the German citizens are almost fanatical savers , preferring to bank deposits in cash, than anything else.
Your result, German banks are forced to take high risks, having available a lot of money.
Without elaborating on details , the money ends up either in the property market , creating bubble (in the country's central bank , the bubble is calculated at 20% of the value of the property ) or on exchanges.
Precisely for this reason , the main stock index (DAX) has reached a record 9,000 units - but not due to packages liquidity the central bank, as in other countries (Italy, Spain , USA etc. . ) , since borrowing is almost zero.
Sometime we will explode and both bubbles ( as much long before , the bigger will be ), so losing too much money - especially of course those of the rich , since in Germany income disparities are huge , with the percentage of poor to grow continuously.
So if Germany increased its domestic consumption with the help of " targeted " tax ( partial redistribution of incomes ) , as well as to increases in wages of its employees would lose much less money - since there would need to export surpluses nor invested the savings derived therefrom , in internal bubbles .
It will also increase exports of other countries in the Eurozone to the German market , thus re-created the conditions repayment of debts to Germany and its businesses.
These facts indicate the position of Keynes, according to which the best investment of a rich country, if of course they are not planning to leave it, is Pay higher taxes and wages.
Despite that , however, the economic model of Germany is not working properly, while the eurozone is in danger , the government insists on austerity policy follows closely from 2000 (Agenda 2010) - while income powerful Germans continue to deny the higher taxation of profits or increases in employee wages , although constantly losing money.
They fail to understand is that , except that they will lose more money from abroad , sometime the bubble economy (stock , real estate ) , which feeds the ever-increasing profits, will explode - not ' by sharing ' to Keynes neither like economist, nor as an investor. The arrogance but this will be paid too dearly - though unfortunately will pay and those who are not to blame at all.
writter of article is Mr. vasilis viliardos from analyst.gr
Tuesday 29 October 2013
"Printing" money!-(THE LIQUIDITY CRISIS IN EUROZONE)
βασίλης βιλιάρδος
a modern economist, graduate of the Economics University of Athens, with postgraduate studies at the University of Hamburg - where he was active professionally for several years, with business owners.
Εxcerpt from an article by Mr. Vasilis viliardos
Τhe printing of new money made from two " printers " - the large central (ECB , Fed , etc. ) as well as of many, small printers ( commercial banks ) .
( a) The central bank : The " print " here is synonymous with the purchase of government bonds , as well as with 'loans facility " to commercial banks - against guarantees from them (bonds , assets , loans , etc.).
Thereby creating new money out of thin air , so we are talking about increasing the balance sheet of the central bank - money though not "produce" necessary inflation, if not disposed of by commercial banks to the real economy. If course used for speculative purposes , superimposed by commercial banks in the stock , then produce inflation there - because of increased but essentially fictitious demand.
The ECB balance sheet is estimated at $ 3.74 trillion ( 2.77 trillion €), while the FED at $ 3.72 trillion - which means that, from this point of view the two areas , the U.S. and the Eurozone are now almost equals ( chart).
Τhe printing of new money made from two " printers " - the large central (ECB , Fed , etc. ) as well as of many, small printers ( commercial banks ) .
( a) The central bank : The " print " here is synonymous with the purchase of government bonds , as well as with 'loans facility " to commercial banks - against guarantees from them (bonds , assets , loans , etc.).
Thereby creating new money out of thin air , so we are talking about increasing the balance sheet of the central bank - money though not "produce" necessary inflation, if not disposed of by commercial banks to the real economy. If course used for speculative purposes , superimposed by commercial banks in the stock , then produce inflation there - because of increased but essentially fictitious demand.
The ECB balance sheet is estimated at $ 3.74 trillion ( 2.77 trillion €), while the FED at $ 3.72 trillion - which means that, from this point of view the two areas , the U.S. and the Eurozone are now almost equals ( chart).
( b ) Commercial banks: The print here is connected with the provision of loans to businesses and households. The total balance sheet of commercial banks in the euro area is estimated at 33 trillion € ( approximately $ 44 trillion ) - ie three times the GDP of the Eurozone. The corresponding U.S. has been reduced below the $ 17 trillion - roughly equal to the GDP of the superpower (although as many trillion $ are outside the U.S. ) .
In this case , the risks to the banking system in the eurozone are too large - leading to ever diminishing credit to the real economy by more States, even surplus (Germany, Netherlands , etc.).
This reduction results in balancing inflationary pressures, which would create increased money printing by the ECB - after the big printing works , but are small not work . In contrast , small printers " burn " money after trying to collect existing loans by lowering constantly new.
So in conclusion , the solution to the problem of indebtedness to " cut money " as it is called by many the 'print' is not as easy as it sounds - since no one can force small ' printers ' to ' chop money' .
In this case , the risks to the banking system in the eurozone are too large - leading to ever diminishing credit to the real economy by more States, even surplus (Germany, Netherlands , etc.).
This reduction results in balancing inflationary pressures, which would create increased money printing by the ECB - after the big printing works , but are small not work . In contrast , small printers " burn " money after trying to collect existing loans by lowering constantly new.
So in conclusion , the solution to the problem of indebtedness to " cut money " as it is called by many the 'print' is not as easy as it sounds - since no one can force small ' printers ' to ' chop money' .
THE LIQUIDITY CRISIS IN EUROZONE
Banks now in southern Europe is totally dependent on ECB loans - having already received two packages facility (LTRO 1 and 2), € 2 trillion €, at 1% interest . However, the money was not given to the real economy , but used mainly for the purchase of bonds, which were issued by the states to finance the huge deficits and debts. In particular the following:
(a ) The Spanish banks received from the ECB 300 billion €, of which € 225 billion, have not been returned yet.
( b ) The Italian banks took 255 billion €, of which € 233 billion are still outstanding . Unlike now with the Spanish , which have created provisions for doubtful debts of 59% , the predictions of Italian banks is just 44% - despite the fact that many people refer to a ticking time bomb, a " skeleton" better, who are hiding on their balance sheets .
( c ) The French banks have the ECB 87 billion €, the Greek 64 billion €, the German 10 billion €, the Irish € 35 billion and the Portuguese 45 billion €.
Further estimated that the need for new capital Eurozone banks because of the huge bad debts , are of the order of 720 billion € - which should take the ESM, so as not to burden the budgets of states and hence , public debts.
Banks now in southern Europe is totally dependent on ECB loans - having already received two packages facility (LTRO 1 and 2), € 2 trillion €, at 1% interest . However, the money was not given to the real economy , but used mainly for the purchase of bonds, which were issued by the states to finance the huge deficits and debts. In particular the following:
(a ) The Spanish banks received from the ECB 300 billion €, of which € 225 billion, have not been returned yet.
( b ) The Italian banks took 255 billion €, of which € 233 billion are still outstanding . Unlike now with the Spanish , which have created provisions for doubtful debts of 59% , the predictions of Italian banks is just 44% - despite the fact that many people refer to a ticking time bomb, a " skeleton" better, who are hiding on their balance sheets .
( c ) The French banks have the ECB 87 billion €, the Greek 64 billion €, the German 10 billion €, the Irish € 35 billion and the Portuguese 45 billion €.
Further estimated that the need for new capital Eurozone banks because of the huge bad debts , are of the order of 720 billion € - which should take the ESM, so as not to burden the budgets of states and hence , public debts.
Stuck in a liquidity trap!
The U.S. have " caught " have been buried alive in a way, the " trap of quantitative easing » (QE-trap) - with little chance of escape. In such a trap is driven by the central bank when , in an effort to increase liquidity , buying long-term bonds - resulting , at that time, to decrease the corresponding rates , a "trend" above the normal .
This means in turn that the growth rate of the economy is recovering , returning quickly to previous levels - though one can not determine the exact amount , much less how it can be maintained.
However, when growth returns , grow fast long-term rates (Figure I) - because bond buyers worry that the central bank will start reducing liquidity.
With a simple example , it is like one is in the fast lane (in this case the economy to growth ) , where suddenly forced to stop presses the accelerator (reduction of QE), unable to overcome the adjoining car.
The increase now term interest rate reduces the demand in those markets, which are " interest rate sensitive" as in car loans and property - thereby limiting the growth rate accordingly . This requires the central bank to further increase liquidity , open up even more then the tap to reduce long term interest rates - so the whole process starts over , repeated continuously.
On the other hand, the main problem of the economy remains unchanged - after experiencing an era debt states, businesses and households. The result of over-indebtedness is not only continuing credit crunch , but the failure to develop world trade - where both imports and exports show signs of fatigue seriously.
World trade fell by 0.8% in August compared with the previous month, while industrial production worldwide increased by only 0.3%. In most major regions of the world, excluding the U.S. and Japan, imports fell - and also exports to developing economies.
The "promises" then U.S. President, according to which would double exports superpower within just five years, it is doomed to be disappointed - because not all countries together to increase their exports, especially in such a global environment (something as for Europe, since otherwise fails austerity policies imposed by Germany).
Up to " recover " So (if ) the global economy , the Fed should continue to hold " down the throttle ' , provide an ever- new liquidity , hoping to overtake the next car - obliging and other central banks planet to mimic . The above evidenced inter alia by the recent decision of the Bank of England, on the use of the same method.
The money of course end up in financial markets, as investors shun be placed on the real economy due to the recession - which , on the one hand feeds the dangerous bubble shares , secondly unemployment, as shown even in those countries which are interested particularly for jobs .
In particular , several companies in Sweden and Denmark reduce their number of employees by addressing issues in mood, especially in the export market - with the result that further fueled the global recession, which will lead to further increase in liquidity from the central banks coke .
Now in the case of Spain, where attempts to spreading false hopes about the exit from the crisis (recovery), financial data documenting the exact opposite - by increasing these indices to result solely the excess liquidity by central banks.
In the figure above III clearly shows the decline in mortgage by almost 90% since the beginning of the crisis - which denies the recovery of the economy. In the next chart, the credit crunch in the country demonstrates the enormous weaknesses in the real economy - which is even greater than the corresponding in Greece.
As we can see , loans to Spanish businesses have fallen by almost 20% , so it is impossible to speak of " reversal ". The same is true across the Eurozone , leading to continued recession and unemployment - forcing the ECB to mimic the policy of Fed, until the " terminal decline ."
You might assume now that Germany is in a better position , having large surpluses in the current account . Besides that greater stock indicators also due to excess supply of liquidity by central banks.
But this is , as we substantiate in a next analysis us, wholly erroneous conclusions, which do not correspond to reality at all - let alone when German companies laying off more employees .
writter is vasilis viliardos article from www.analyst.gr
This means in turn that the growth rate of the economy is recovering , returning quickly to previous levels - though one can not determine the exact amount , much less how it can be maintained.
However, when growth returns , grow fast long-term rates (Figure I) - because bond buyers worry that the central bank will start reducing liquidity.
With a simple example , it is like one is in the fast lane (in this case the economy to growth ) , where suddenly forced to stop presses the accelerator (reduction of QE), unable to overcome the adjoining car.
The increase now term interest rate reduces the demand in those markets, which are " interest rate sensitive" as in car loans and property - thereby limiting the growth rate accordingly . This requires the central bank to further increase liquidity , open up even more then the tap to reduce long term interest rates - so the whole process starts over , repeated continuously.
On the other hand, the main problem of the economy remains unchanged - after experiencing an era debt states, businesses and households. The result of over-indebtedness is not only continuing credit crunch , but the failure to develop world trade - where both imports and exports show signs of fatigue seriously.
World trade fell by 0.8% in August compared with the previous month, while industrial production worldwide increased by only 0.3%. In most major regions of the world, excluding the U.S. and Japan, imports fell - and also exports to developing economies.
The "promises" then U.S. President, according to which would double exports superpower within just five years, it is doomed to be disappointed - because not all countries together to increase their exports, especially in such a global environment (something as for Europe, since otherwise fails austerity policies imposed by Germany).
Up to " recover " So (if ) the global economy , the Fed should continue to hold " down the throttle ' , provide an ever- new liquidity , hoping to overtake the next car - obliging and other central banks planet to mimic . The above evidenced inter alia by the recent decision of the Bank of England, on the use of the same method.
The money of course end up in financial markets, as investors shun be placed on the real economy due to the recession - which , on the one hand feeds the dangerous bubble shares , secondly unemployment, as shown even in those countries which are interested particularly for jobs .
In particular , several companies in Sweden and Denmark reduce their number of employees by addressing issues in mood, especially in the export market - with the result that further fueled the global recession, which will lead to further increase in liquidity from the central banks coke .
Now in the case of Spain, where attempts to spreading false hopes about the exit from the crisis (recovery), financial data documenting the exact opposite - by increasing these indices to result solely the excess liquidity by central banks.
In the figure above III clearly shows the decline in mortgage by almost 90% since the beginning of the crisis - which denies the recovery of the economy. In the next chart, the credit crunch in the country demonstrates the enormous weaknesses in the real economy - which is even greater than the corresponding in Greece.
As we can see , loans to Spanish businesses have fallen by almost 20% , so it is impossible to speak of " reversal ". The same is true across the Eurozone , leading to continued recession and unemployment - forcing the ECB to mimic the policy of Fed, until the " terminal decline ."
You might assume now that Germany is in a better position , having large surpluses in the current account . Besides that greater stock indicators also due to excess supply of liquidity by central banks.
But this is , as we substantiate in a next analysis us, wholly erroneous conclusions, which do not correspond to reality at all - let alone when German companies laying off more employees .
writter is vasilis viliardos article from www.analyst.gr
Monday 28 October 2013
Sunday 27 October 2013
Thursday 24 October 2013
EURNZD TARGET ALMOST COMPLETED
LAST ANALYSIS BEFORE 2 DAYS.
http://inforex-trading.blogspot.gr/2013/10/eurnzd-daily-chart.html
NOW 400+ PIPS
Wednesday 23 October 2013
EURUSD WEEKLY-REVERSE THE LAST POSTION NOW!
THE WEEKLY TARGET FROM 20-09-13 NEXT CHART
http://inforex-trading.blogspot.gr/2013/09/eurusd-weekly.html
NOW THE NEW POSITION START! BUT BREAKOUT THE 1,39 IS AGAIN FOLLOW TO 1,41 LIKE THE PREVIOUS CHART! FIRST ATTEMPT NOW IS SHORT!
http://inforex-trading.blogspot.gr/2013/09/eurusd-weekly.html
NOW THE NEW POSITION START! BUT BREAKOUT THE 1,39 IS AGAIN FOLLOW TO 1,41 LIKE THE PREVIOUS CHART! FIRST ATTEMPT NOW IS SHORT!
FIGHT THE FEAR WHEN YOUR TRADE!
CLICK NEXT LINK READ (USE GOOGLE TRANSLATE!)-RECOMMENDED ARTICLE
FIGHT THE FEAR-ΠΟΛΕΜΗΣΤΕ ΤΟ ΦΟΒΟ ΣΤΙΣ ΣΥΝΑΛΛΑΓΕΣ ΣΑΣ!
FIGHT THE FEAR-ΠΟΛΕΜΗΣΤΕ ΤΟ ΦΟΒΟ ΣΤΙΣ ΣΥΝΑΛΛΑΓΕΣ ΣΑΣ!
Tuesday 22 October 2013
Monday 21 October 2013
Sunday 20 October 2013
Thursday 17 October 2013
Wednesday 16 October 2013
Williams A/D VOLUME
THIS IS NOT THE MT4 A/D!
READ PLEASE THE NEXT LINKS FOR RIGHT USING!
VOLUMES THEORY (USE THE TRANSLATE OF GOOGLE PLEASE)
ALL ADX-RSI-CCI seperate window! multi tf
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FOREX SYMBOL INDEX-(CORRELATION POWER!)
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B regreassion analysis
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Chandle momentum oscillator
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(εδω η γραμμη 1 τασης των τιμων με την γραμμη 1 του cmo ειναι σε αποκλιση προειδοποιωντας για αντιστροφη που λιγο αργοτερα ηρθε…)
CMO
Ο ταλαντωτης chande momentum oscillator CMO αναπτυχθηκε απο τον tushar chande ο οποιος προσπαθησε να συλλαβει την “καθαρη” ορμη τασης,ο οποιος μαζι με αλλους αναφερεται και διερευναται στο βιβλιο του (the new technical trader).
Ενω ειναι παρομοιος με τον RSI Ο CMO διαφερει αλλα και υπερεχει απο αυτον σε αρκετα θεματα.
ΤΥΠΟΣ ΥΠΟΛΟΓΙΣΜΟΥ CMO
CMO=Σup(n)-Σdn(n)/Σup(n)+Σdn(n) οπου
Σup(n)=αθροισμα ημερισιας ανοδικης ορμης n τελευταιων περιοδων && Σdn(n)=αθροισμα ημερισιας καθοδικης ορμης n τελευταιων περιοδων
ΠΛΕΟΝΕΚΤΗΜΑΤΑ CMO
1)μετρα αμεσα την ορμη κανοντας χρηση των τιμων ανοδικων-καθοδικων περιοδων στον αριθμητη
2)η διακυμανση γινεται μεταξυ +100 & -100 με επιπεδο ισορροπιας το μηδεν 0 ,οποτε εχουμε μια ποιο ακριβη κλιμακα επιπεδων διαχωρισμου της ανοδικης απο την καθοδικη ορμη,ταυτοχρονα το σημειο 0 χωριζει την ανοδικη ορμη απο την καθοδικη(τιμες ανω του μηδεν δηλωνουν ανοδο και κατω πτωση της ορμης)
κανονες συναλλαγων
σε ζωνη σημα αγορας στην διασπαση του -50 επιπεδου απο ανοδικο CMO & σημα πωλησης σε διασπαση του +50 απο καθοδικο CMO
σε ταση
εντοπισμος αποκλισεων ,σχεδιασμος γραμμων τασης επανω στον CMO και επιβλεψη των κλισεων αυτων,εφαρμογη των σχηματισμων αντιστροφης στην γραμμη του ταλαντωτη ισοδυναμα με εκεινους των τιμων.
Ultimate osc.
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